Dec 18th update: Nastiness

Gold broke it’s major pivot at 1670 today as PMs in general posted nasty red days. We bounced off the 200SMA today in gold. Silver and miners didn’t make new lows. My stop remains $81.5 USD or a break down below 1625 gold. It depends on the action,

Miners and silver didn’t make new lows. So, there is plenty of good news. Sentiment can’t be very good after a day like today. Smart money was heavily short silver and so this was kind of expected. 

Equities are getting overbought and over-complacent. We will probably consolidate/correct here for a few weeks but will likely make new highs in Q1 2013. We’re been rising since March 2009 and we should set a major top and see a series of lower lows made starting in 2013. 

Let’s see what the next few days old. There were one too many people having stops at the 1670 pivot and those had to be run (1625 max). I believe that we have seen most of the downside already. Today, may have been the bottom. I believe that we’re about to see a major upleg in PMs starting 2013. Now is not the time to exit positions.

Portfolio change: Added silver

Disclaimer: This blog and website are for informational, educational and discussion purposes only. HelpPayYourBills is not a registered investment advisor. Even though topics may be discussed on this blog that involve investment issues, nothing on this blog shall be deemed to constitute investment advice. No reader should act in reliance on anything discussed in this blog without prior consultation with a licensed professional who is qualified to evaluate the reader’s individual facts and circumstances and offer an informed professional opinion with respect thereto. If any reader takes action or makes decisions based solely on the information on this blog without prior consultation with a qualified, licensed professional, the reader does so at his or her own risk and agrees that HelpPayYourBills shall have no liability resulting from such unilateral action or decisions by the reader.

Dec 13th update: Printing 1 trillion $$$$$

Feds announced that they’re going to print $85/month open-ended until employment drops below 6.5%. PMs tanked because now the markets think that QE is going to end soon.

PM Charts are getting ugly and I have no answer except say that it’s a shakeout.

Treasury and USD charts are as ugly as they get as well.

You can’t get away with printing $85B a month and not have inflation. I will honor my stops if they get hit. But patience is required. IMHO, they’re just shaking the tree as hard as they can.

The moment I’m ready to quit is normally the moment right before a little miracle of progress happens.  So I never give up.  I was strong enough to get this far and am strong enough to wait until your stops get taken out.

Dec 11th update: In waiting mode

Quick update: Another day just meandering around. FOMC announcement tomorrow. 

Charts are saying that the low risk, high probability, high reward trade is being long PMs :) My bets are placed at this point. I’m expecting the Feds to deliver tomorrow. FWIW, we might have to wait until Jan 2013 FOMC for the Fed to deliver. I’m mentally prepared.

Disclaimer: This blog and website are for informational, educational and discussion purposes only. HelpPayYourBills is not a registered investment advisor. Even though topics may be discussed on this blog that involve investment issues, nothing on this blog shall be deemed to constitute investment advice. No reader should act in reliance on anything discussed in this blog without prior consultation with a licensed professional who is qualified to evaluate the reader’s individual facts and circumstances and offer an informed professional opinion with respect thereto. If any reader takes action or makes decisions based solely on the information on this blog without prior consultation with a qualified, licensed professional, the reader does so at his or her own risk and agrees that HelpPayYourBills shall have no liability resulting from such unilateral action or decisions by the reader.

Dec 9th weekend report: USD bounce continues

It looks like the USD topped on Friday. We might double Monday/Tuesday. Charts have turned down completely. We need to a huge rally to turn these charts around. Personally, my stop is at 81.5 If USD closes over 81.5, I will close most my positions and re-evaluate. I highly doubt that’s going to be the case. 

Equities and commodities help strong despite a strong USD. Charts looking ok –  not all that great. Nothing to do as of now. 

It looks like Monday and Tuesday will continue to be slow days in anticipation on the FOMC announcement on Wednesday. It looks like all markets really want to wait to see what the Feds say. All eyes on Wednesday IMHO.

Dec 6th update: USD bounces hard

As expected, USD bounced hard from it’s oversold conditions. The line in the sand is 81.5 on the USD. If gold breaks the 1670 pivot, I’m going to make the USD 81.5 pivot the stop for all my trading positions.

Equities and commodities held rather well today considering the big USD bounce.

Oil looked to have taken a hit, but charts looks good. Nothing to worry yet.

We have some big news coming up in the next few days. The big employment report tomorrow and more importantly the FOMC announcement next Wednesday. I believe that one of these if not both will move the markets in a big way.

In conclusion, I plan on holding all my stakes until USD 81.5 is crossed. Once 81.5 is crossed, all bets are off. The FOMC announcement next Wednesday is looking like a very big day. USD, Equities and Commodities look to be waiting for that news. Let’s all hang in there until then.